The world’s largest defense contractor, Lockheed Martin ( LMT ) is expected to bring in sales of more than $45 billion this year. Yet the whole company sells for about $29 billion. The low price is likely owed to two worries. First, like many companies with pension plans, Lockheed must make large contributions to offset last year’s market losses, Management expects to contribute $1 billion this year and $1.4 billion next year, up from $109 million contributed in 2008. But the stock market’s rebound this year might have reduced Lockheed’s pension shortfall, and in any case, more money set aside today means less that will be needed tomorrow. Second, the federal government is overspending its tax receipts by a margin that seems unsustainable, making cuts to discretionary spending, including on defense, necessary. But Lockheed brass sees sales increasing by 4% to 5% in each of the next three years. Perhaps the bosses are too bullish, but shares at 10 times earnings seem amply cheap. Go here to see the original: 3 Stocks Priced 50% Below the Market

Continue Reading

What a remarkable time to be an investor. First, you suffer through the worst bear market since the Great Depression, then you experience one of the best spurts ever. The rally–Standard & Poor’s 500-stock index soared nearly 63% between March 9 and Nov. 19–has been strongest among some of the areas that were hardest hit in 2008. In the fund world, this translates into the worst-shall-be-first effect: Many of last year’s weakest performers are among this year’s best. And many of last year’s winners are this year’s dogs (see bear-market funds, for instance). {”s” : “bcsix,braix,oaklx,vaapx”,”k” : “c10,l10,p20,t10″,”o” : “bcsix,braix,oaklx,vaapx”,”j” : “”} Some funds, however, managed to perform well (on a relative basis at least) both this year and last, and others were stinkers both years. Let’s look at some of these surprises. The managers of Brown Capital Management Small Company (NASDAQ: BCSIX – News ) are remarkably patient. With annual portfolio turnover typically on the order of 10%, we can rule out the notion that they rode last year’s best-performing sectors (the ones that lost the least) and then hopped onto real estate and China this year. In fact, the managers, led by Keith Lee, just held on to the same small but fast-growing companies they’ve had for years. This steady approach means they are likely to stick with a company even when it hits a pothole and are unlikely to sell a stock because it has risen a lot. The fund’s lack of energy stocks helped it keep its losses to 30% in 2008; solid sales and profit gains among its holdings helped propel the fund to a nearly 35% gain this year. Brown Small Company’s long-term record is excellent, although it achieves its returns in fits and starts. Despite a torrent of correspondence questioning our intelligence and sanity (not to mention our morality), Morningstar kept Oakmark Select (NASDAQ: OAKLX – News ) on its list of Fund Analyst Picks last year. And, yes, 2008 was the year Washington Mutual, in which Select had an outsized position, withered and then was acquired for next to nothing. Yet even in 2008, managers Bill Nygren and Henry Berghoef beat the market and most large-blend funds by a small amount. And so far this year, Select gained almost 50% through Nov. 19 as its debt-heavy but still-sound holdings came roaring back. In recent years, Nygren and Berghoef have shifted into more-traditional growth companies because they seemed so cheap. Although this looked like a poor move at first, the managers have been vindicated. Despite the WaMu gaffe, Nygren’s record since launching Select in 1996 is miles ahead of the S&P 500. He hasn’t lost his touch, and we’re pleased we didn’t toss him and Select overboard. Turning to the disappointments, one of the biggest has been Vanguard Asset Allocation (NASDAQ: VAAPX – News ). Mellon Capital Management allocates the fund’s assets among the S&P 500, Barclays Capital Long U.S. Treasury Bond Index, and cash. Because Mellon leaned heavily toward stocks in 2008, the fund lost 36%, just 1 percentage point better than the S&P 500 did. This year, it gained nearly 18% through Nov. 19, about 4 points less than the index’s rise, landing it in the bottom 17% of Morningstar’s moderate-allocation category. One problem is that the fund restricts its stock holdings to the S&P 500–not a good thing when big company stocks trail their smaller brethren. Moving 10% of the fund’s assets from stocks to cash in the second quarter didn’t help. Bridgeway Aggressive Investors 2 (NASDAQ: BRAIX – News ) fell off a cliff in ‘08, sinking 55%. The fund gained 23% so far this year, but that still puts it in the bottom 18% of mid-cap growth funds. John Montgomery, who launched Aggressive Investors 2 in 2001, uses sophisticated computer programs to pick stocks. But quants were hurt by the sheer speed of events during the financial crisis and by massive redemptions from hedge funds that employ similar tactics. Montgomery is tight-lipped about his blackbox models, so investors face a challenge in deciding whether to hold or fold. This article originally appeared in Kiplinger’s. Russel Kinnel has a position in the following securities mentioned above: OAKLX Morningstar Premium Members get access to over 3,900 Stock and Fund Analyst Reports, Analyst Picks, and award-winning portfolio tools. Learn More . See the article here: Four Big Mutual Fund Surprises of 2009 (Morningstar.com)

Continue Reading

From 1990 to 1997, Kevin Haggerty served as Senior Vice President for Equity Trading at Fidelity Capital Markets, Boston, a division of Fidelity Investments. He was responsible for all U.S. institutional Listed, OTC and Option trading in addition to all major Exchange Floor Executions. For a free trial to Kevin’s Daily Trading Report, go to tradingmarkets.com. The SPX took out the 10/21/09 1101.36 high on Mon and closed at 1109.30, with a new intraday rally high of 1113.69, or +67% from the 666.79 3/6/09 low. If you have been following this rag sheet for a while you know that the plan was to scale sell 1/3 of the long term scale down index proxy position bought in Feb and Mar 2009, and that was completed on Mon. The secular bear market started with the 2000 Tech bubble bull market top, and the first SPX bull cycle within the secular bear market was +105% off the 769 10/10/02 low. That economic recovery included tax cuts which, by the way, enabled the Gov’t to collect the most tax revenue of all time, and the same was true with the 15% capital gains tax. Fast forward to the “Panic of 2008″, which was the first one in over 100 years, and now you have a Socialist administration trying to solve the problem by ringing up $trillions in debt and deficits, with plans for the biggest tax increases in history in the face of an economy that has a higher probability of depression right now rather than recovery, like we had in 2002-2007. The Socialized medicine, and Cap and Trade proposals are probably the two most dangerous pieces of legislation in history, and will bury our economy for years to come if passed in current form. On top of that, if the current proposed legislation passes, which effectively puts the Treasury Secretary in charge of the Fed, and therefore takes away its independence, and puts the politicians totally in charge of our financial system, seeing that the Treasury Secretary meets regularly with the President, I have some used tents and cases of C-rations you are going to need. The bottom line is that the next equity market cycle down in this secular bear market will also be devastating, based on what the Administration is currently doing, and not doing to solve the derivative meltdown. This means a strict buy and hold strategy will bury most investors as it did the last two secular bear market bear cycles of 2000-2002 (-50.5%) and 2007-2009 (-57.7%). The secular bear markets have a life of about 17 years, and strict buy and holders don’t make money, which was the case from 1965-1982, and will be again from 2000-2017. However, in a secular bull market, the buy and hold investor wins the game, as it did from 1982-2000. Are you in La-La land that you think this socialist administrations policies are going to lead you to the Promised Land, or do you have a strategy to protect your capital as the market trades higher, which I still think it will, at least to the 1229 zone, which is the .618RT to 1576 from 667. The next commentary is Tues 11/24 Have a good trading day! Go to TradingMarkets.com for a free one-week trial to Kevin Haggerty’s Professional Trading Service. Visit link: Haggerty: Do You Have a Play? (TradingMarkets.com)

Continue Reading

Trackback URL for this story: http://www.smartmoney.com/tb/Jdmt.2FdQ.3D What is a Trackback? It is a way to tell us that you have published something that references this story. How do I send a Trackback? If you blog or mention this story on your website, you can use this Trackback URL to notify us about it. Some blogging software programs can help in sending a Trackback to us. Click here to read more about Trackbacks. See the rest here: 12 Cheap Funds With Solid Track Records

Continue Reading

Rick Alexander has been a broker and analyst in the futures business for over thirty years. He is a Vice-President for Sales and Trading at the Zaner Group (zaner.com) a Chicago-based futures brokerage firm. Comments for Thursday, November 19, 2009 Looking Ahead to Today by Reflecting Back at Wednesday’s Price Action METALS: Higher closes yesterday for copper, gold, silver and platinum. Copper made a new recent high and close although settling near the lower end its trading range just like the silver and gold did. Gold made a new CONTRACT HIGH AND CLOSE while silver made a new recent high and close before both settled near the lower end of todays trading range as mentioned above. Platinum made a new CONTRACT HIGH before settling lower in reversal type action. Of course, all of the metals continue to be in strong bull markets overall. CURRENCIES: Higher for the Euro fx and Swiss franc while lower for the dollar index, British pound, Canadian and Aussie dollar along with the Japanese yen. The euro and franc continue to be in long-term up-trends with the latter looking stronger than the former but both in choppy action at this time. The yen made a new recent higher before selling off to close lower in reversal type action but still should test its higher sooner than later. The Canadian dollar also settled lower still in an uptrend overall with support under 9400 basis the December contract but needing to close over 9600 to help verify a continuation of its move higher. The pound and Aussie dollar also settled lower but are both still is in strong uptrends. The dollar finally had a strong close but continues to look very bearish overall. FINANCIALS: Higher settlements on Wednesday for the Eurodollars but lower for the notes and bonds. However, we have a little of everything off of today’s action. The Eurodollar made a new CONTRACT HIGH AND CLOSE while the bonds made a new recent high before settling lower in reversal type action. The notes just closed lower but are in a small BULL PENNANT. However, the overall results are still higher for all of the financials. See the balance of my morning comments, including the Metals, Softs, Energies and Grains, at my website. For my complete coverage, visit my commentary page at markethead.com. The information in this Report and the opinions expressed are subject to change without notice. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed constitutes a solicitation by Rick Alexander or the Zaner Group of the purchase or sale of any futures or options. Futures and options trading is speculative in nature and involves risks. Spread trading is not necessarily less risky than outright positions. Futures and options trading is not suitable for all investors. For more trading strategies, go to TradingMarkets.com/reports. Original post: What’s Up, What’s Down: Metals in Bull Market, Dollar Bearish (TradingMarkets.com)

Continue Reading

Foreclosures are dominating the housing market. Right now, there are 1.5 million such homes for sale, and more are expected to be available soon. That provides both opportunities and pitfalls for bargain hunters. Just because prices are low doesn’t mean you should make snap decisions or buy something that isn’t right. Here are 7 tips for making sure you don’t get taken for a ride. 1. Don’t get caught up in a feeding frenzy “Everybody and their grandmas are trying to buy foreclosures,” said Glenn Kelman, CEO of Redfin, an online, discount broker. But that doesn’t mean you should lose your head. Banks put repossessed homes back on the market at cut-rate prices because quick sales help avoid the expense of upkeep, such as property taxes, insurance, heat and electricity. Those lowball prices represent golden opportunities, but they also attract dozens of buyers who may bid until homes are no longer bargains. Don’t get caught up in a bidding war. Instead, carefully calculate what you want to spend and do not exceed that price. 2. Contact lenders directly Smart buyers establish relations with asset managers at banks. This may reward them with inside information or first crack at new foreclosures hitting the market. In the case of a short sale, for example, it can give the inside edge. If a buyer is pursuing a short sale — buying a home for less than what the current owner owes on the mortgage — she should talk directly to the property’s asset manager. That way, if the short sale falls through and the bank repossesses the house, the asset manager knows she is still interested. It could lead to a quick sale without other bidders. 3. Get pre-approved from the lender you want to buy from If you’re trying to buy a property from, say Bank of America, it can help to get a pre-approved mortgage from Bank of America. Doing so may cause lenders to look more favorably on your bid if it’s similar to others. Plus, you’re not locked in if other lenders offer you better terms. You can always change your mind and get your mortgage from another source. 4. Consider fix-ups Most REOs, the industry term for bank owned properties, are sold as is. “The conventional wisdom is that banks will do nothing to the houses before the sale,” said Kelman. That can be problematic today because so many foreclosed homes are in less-than-mint conditions . Often, the former owners were struggling to pay their bills and may have neglected routine maintenance. Or, they may have trashed the properties before leaving In 25% of cases, homebuyers persuade lenders to fix some of the problems before the sale closes. Most of the time, banks would rather sell the house to the next available bidder — one who doesn’t ask the bank to pay for repairs. So be willing to consider a home that needs some work — but budget accordingly. 5. Hire a real estate attorney Once banks agree to sales, they often want to move fast and load contracts up with legal mumbo jumbo. As a result, buyers often do not have the time or expertise to figure all the angles. The solution is to hire a real estate attorney — even in states where home sales are usually completed without one. Considering you’re making a six-figure investment, the legal fees are cheap insurance against the risks. 6. Wait to make an offer Homebuyers may be well served to wait before making an offer. Let the house sit on the market for a few days, giving others a chance to set the bidding tone. Then jump in. “Talk to the agent selling the property,” said Kelman. “The agent may tip his hand. Call up and ask, ‘Should I make an offer? What should I come in at?’” The agent may tell you he has offers at, say $300,000 and you should bid a bit higher, giving you an advantage over earlier bidders. 7. Tour properties with contractors With so many REOs in seriously deficient shape, it’s essential to go over every inch with someone who can spot problems and tell you how much it will cost to remedy them. A foundation crack can be a minor problem or a deal breaker, and most ordinary homebuyers have no way of telling the difference. Like an attorney, a contractor can be very worthwhile insurance. View original post here: 7 tips for buying foreclosures (CNNMoney.com)

Continue Reading

Stock analysts should carry pom-poms, for all the cheerleading they seem to do for the companies they cover. For S&P 500 companies, 49% of recommendations say “buy” and 44% say “hold.” Just 7% say “sell.” Perhaps analysts find S&P 500 companies or the broader stock market particularly attractive now, but the dearth of “sell” recommendations is nothing new. Maybe “hold,” as vaguely positive as it may sound (investors tend to hold stocks they like), has become an unlikely euphemism for “don’t bother to hold.” Whatever the case, analysts who go overtly negative usually seem to have good reason. Long-term studies show that “buy” recommendations have little predictive power, but that “sells” foretell underperformance more often than not. Analysts, you might say, can’t quite pick winners, but can sure spot stinkers. See original here: 3 Stocks Analysts Say to Sell

Continue Reading

Parents will change an infant’s diaper as much as 12 times a day and a toddler up to eight times a day, for about 2,900 to 4,400 diaper changes per year, depending on age, according to a survey of pediatricians last year by New Haven, Conn.-based The Diaper Bank, a nonprofit group that distributes free diapers to needy families. Sandra Gordon, author of “Consumer Reports Best Baby Products,” says parents will end up spending $1,500 to $2,000 on brand-name diapers. To save, buy generic or store-brand baby wipes and diapers. “With store brand diapers, you can save about 3 cents per diaper,” Gordon says. Original post: 7 ways to save on baby costs (Bankrate.com)

Continue Reading

Honeywell International ( HON ) makes industrial products for aerospace companies, home builders, manufacturers, car makers, among other customers. None of these groups is having a banner year, and so sales for Honeywell are expected to fall 15% this year. Early forecasts call for a sales rebound next year, but management is expected to spend $800 million or so to fund the company’s pension account, which will likely cause earnings to decline. There’s much to like about the company, though. Many of its products, including air conditioning systems and turbochargers, can reduce energy use and should see strong customer demand and perhaps even legislative support in coming years. Debt, apart from the pension obligation, is modest. Shares sell for just 15 times next year’s earnings forecast. And the dividend yield is over 3%. The rest is here: 3 Stocks With Plentiful Free Cash Flow

Continue Reading

With 620 restaurants, Buffalo Wild Wings ( BWLD ) is a little less than one-third the size of Applebee’s (which is owned, along with IHOP, by DineEquity ( DIN )) and a little more than one-third the size of Chili’s (owned by Brinker International ( EAT )). Sales for the two larger chains are expected to drop by double-digit percentages this year. Analysts forecast Buffalo’s sales for the year to increase 28%. What’s working? Analysts say the restaurant has separated itself from the bar-and-grill competition by becoming a hangout for sports fans. Two-thirds of sales come from wings and alcohol. Perhaps the big-game crowd is less budget-minded than families when it comes to meals out. Buffalo’s expansion efforts are aided by the company’s lack of debt and the tendency of its franchisees to earn healthy returns. Investors eyeing the stock today should do so cautiously, though, for two reasons. First, chicken wing prices are bizarrely high, recently topping even breast prices, likely because consumers are trading down from fancy dining to what they perceive as cheap eats. Buffalo has responded by pushing “boneless wings” (breast strips, really), but high wings costs are nonetheless crimping margins. Second, shares trade at a lofty 25 times forecast 2009 earnings. Go here to see the original: 3 Stocks With 25% Sales Growth

Continue Reading

Rick Alexander has been a broker and analyst in the futures business for over thirty years. He is a Vice-President for Sales and Trading at the Zaner Group (zaner.com) a Chicago-based futures brokerage firm. Comments for Friday, November 13, 2009 Looking Ahead to Today by Reflecting Back at Thursday’s Price Action METALS: Lower closes yesterday for gold, silver, platinum and copper. Copper settled lower still in three weeks of consolidation. The overall trend is still higher while we wait to see which way copper breaks out. Gold keeps leading way making a new CONTRACT HIGH again but closing lower this time in reversal type action just missing a key reversal. Silver also closed lower along for the ride the latter still in resistance area feeling heavy overall to me. Platinum made a new contract high and then also closing lower in reversal type action but in a strong up-trend like gold. INDICES: Lower closes for the S&P, nasdaq along with the cash and DOW futures. All of the indices are still in up-trends with the nasdaq making a new contract high before settling lower in reversal type action. See the balance of my morning comments, including the Metals, Softs, Energies and Grains, at my website. For my complete coverage, visit my commentary page at markethead.com. The information in this Report and the opinions expressed are subject to change without notice. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed constitutes a solicitation by Rick Alexander or the Zaner Group of the purchase or sale of any futures or options. Futures and options trading is speculative in nature and involves risks. Spread trading is not necessarily less risky than outright positions. Futures and options trading is not suitable for all investors. For more trading strategies, go to TradingMarkets.com/reports. See original here: What’s Up, What’s Down: Metals Show Overall Bullish Trend (TradingMarkets.com)

Continue Reading

Rick Alexander has been a broker and analyst in the futures business for over thirty years. He is a Vice-President for Sales and Trading at the Zaner Group (zaner.com) a Chicago-based futures brokerage firm. Comments for Friday, November 13, 2009 Looking Ahead to Today by Reflecting Back at Thursday’s Price Action METALS: Lower closes yesterday for gold, silver, platinum and copper. Copper settled lower still in three weeks of consolidation. The overall trend is still higher while we wait to see which way copper breaks out. Gold keeps leading way making a new CONTRACT HIGH again but closing lower this time in reversal type action just missing a key reversal. Silver also closed lower along for the ride the latter still in resistance area feeling heavy overall to me. Platinum made a new contract high and then also closing lower in reversal type action but in a strong up-trend like gold. INDICES: Lower closes for the S&P, nasdaq along with the cash and DOW futures. All of the indices are still in up-trends with the nasdaq making a new contract high before settling lower in reversal type action. See the balance of my morning comments, including the Metals, Softs, Energies and Grains, at my website. For my complete coverage, visit my commentary page at markethead.com. The information in this Report and the opinions expressed are subject to change without notice. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed constitutes a solicitation by Rick Alexander or the Zaner Group of the purchase or sale of any futures or options. Futures and options trading is speculative in nature and involves risks. Spread trading is not necessarily less risky than outright positions. Futures and options trading is not suitable for all investors. For more trading strategies, go to TradingMarkets.com/reports. Continue reading here: What’s Up, What’s Down: Metals Trend is Overall Bullish (TradingMarkets.com)

Continue Reading

This week we are concentrating on the industry’s small fry. You may be surprised to find out these funds actually constitute a majority of the offerings on the market. Indeed, of the 21,551 funds and share classes in our database, just over 17,000 hold less than $250 million each. We knocked out of contention the ones that charged a sales load and high annual fees. That left us with a list of 50 funds and from those we selected 12 that were actively run and featured decent long- and short-term track records. They are listed on the table below. See the original post here: 12 Tiny Funds Up at Least 25% in 2009

Continue Reading

Rick Alexander has been a broker and analyst in the futures business for over thirty years. He is a Vice-President for Sales and Trading at the Zaner Group (zaner.com) a Chicago-based futures brokerage firm. Comments for Thursday, November 12, 2009 Looking Ahead to Today by Reflecting Back at Wednesday’s Price Action CURRENCIES: Higher closes yesterday for the Canadian dollar and the dollar index while lower for the Euro fx, Swiss franc, Aussie and Canadian dollar along with the Japanese yen. The euro and franc continue to be in long-term up-trends but after making their highest highs in around three weeks both sold off to close lower in reversal type action. The yen closed lower continuing to be a sell unless settling over 11200 basis the December contract. The Canadian dollar, on the other hand, made its highest high and close in 15-16 trading sessions looking higher with resistance over 9600 basis the December contract. The pound settled sharply quickly ending a bull flag still looking higher but hurt by today’s action. There is good support around the 16400 area basis the December contact. The Aussie dollar made a new CONTRACT HIGH but settled lower this time in reversal type action. Conversely the dollar made a new CONTACT LOW before closing higher. There were quite a few reversal type actions today but none were key reversals! ENERGIES: Higher for natural gas, crude and heating oil along with the rbob. All of the energies with the exception of natural gas are still in uptrends overall but acting choppy which happens many times at tops and bottoms of markets. Gas made a new recent low but closed higher this time in minor reversal type action. GRAINS: Higher closes for Minneapolis, Kansas City and Chicago wheat along with oats, soybeans, soymeal and soyoil, mixed for corn while lower for rough rice. All of the wheat continue to show bottoming signs with MINNEAPOLIS giving me a BUY SIGNAL. Corn closed mixed after trading over four dollars (Dec.) leading me to believe its latest rally is over or at least setting up for a retracement down to the 375 area. Rice made a KEY REVERSAL which is a NEW CONTRACT HIGH and closing below the previous day’s lows. Oats also settled higher with its best close since the middle of June and now close to a second buy signal. The bean complex settled higher with oil up sharply. It’s pretty rare for me to have a buy signal in oil, sell in beans and nothing yet in meal! See the balance of my morning comments, including the Metals, Softs, Energies and Grains, at my website. For my complete coverage, visit my commentary page at markethead.com. The information in this Report and the opinions expressed are subject to change without notice. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed constitutes a solicitation by Rick Alexander or the Zaner Group of the purchase or sale of any futures or options. Futures and options trading is speculative in nature and involves risks. Spread trading is not necessarily less risky than outright positions. Futures and options trading is not suitable for all investors. For more trading strategies, go to TradingMarkets.com/reports. Originally posted here: What’s Up, What’s Down: Bullish Outlook for the Pound, Canadian Dollar, EuorFX and Corn (TradingMarkets.com)

Continue Reading

In a report on Bloomberg TV last Friday, JP Morgan (NYSE: JPM – News )on Friday hinted that the relatively high number of fund managers who were underperforming going into the fourth quarter of 2009 meant that investing styles favoring growth, small-caps and cyclicals may have better fourth quarters than value, large-cap and defensive plays. Here are some of the exchange-traded funds (ETFs) that traders and investors interested in taking advantage of this theory may want to consider reviewing. {”s” : “dog,iwf,iwm,jpm,vug”,”k” : “c10,l10,p20,t10″,”o” : “”,”j” : “”} Small Caps : iShares Russell 2000 ETF (NYSE: IWM – News ) (below) iShares S&P Small Cap 600 Index ETF (NYSE: IJR – News ) The iShares Russell 2000 ETF, IWM, is one of the less overbought equity index ETFs in the market right now. Having just entered overbought territory on Wednesday’s close, Wednesday marked the second day in a row in which sellers overwhelmed buyers going into the end of day . Growth : Vanguard Growth ETF (NYSE: VUG – News ) iShares Russell 1000 Growth Index ETF (NYSE: IWF – News ) Cyclicals : Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDRS ETF (NYSE: XLY – News ) SPDR S&P Retail ETF (NYSE: XRT – News ) (below) After closing higher for three days in a row coming off the early November lows, the SPDR S&P Retail ETF, XRT, causing the ETF to pullback from overbought conditions above the 200-day . And for the bolder among you who are considering speculating against those sectors JP Morgan suggested may lag in Q4, here are some inverse or short ETFs that more sophisticated traders and investors might want to keep an eye on. Short Value : ProShares UltraShort Russell 1000 Value Index ETF (NYSE: SJF – News ) Short Large Cap : ProShares Short Dow 30 Trust ETF (NYSE: DOG – News ) (below) A four-day sell-off has pushed the ProShares Dow 30 Trust ETF, DOG, into extremely oversold territory below the 200-day moving average. How extreme? DOG has closed with a 2-period RSI of less than 2 for the past three days . Short Defensive : ProShares UltraShort Consumer Services ETF , SCC By the way, if you are new to short or inverse ETFs, then be sure to review our column: What You Need to Know About Trading and Investing in Short ETFs . Did you know that our PowerRatings work for exchange-traded funds too? If you’ve been looking for help in trading ETFs in both bull and bear markets, then our ETF PowerRatings may provide the solution you are looking for. Click here to start your free, 7-day trial today! David Penn is Editor in Chief at TradingMarkets.com. Visit link: ETF Market Notes: End of Year ETF Trading and Investing Strategie (TradingMarkets.com)

Continue Reading

To judge a dividend’s affordability, some investors compare the dollar amount of payments with some measure of how much money a company makes, like earnings or free cash flow. That’s a good start, but it has shortcomings. Earnings aren’t quite the same as real cash coming in. Free cash flow is, but it can swing wildly from one year to the next. Also, low payout ratios aren’t necessarily a promising sign. A 2003 study published in Financial Analysts Journal showed to the surprise of many (or at least, to the surprise of many finance nerds) that high payout ratios tend to predict faster earnings growth. And anyhow, sometimes companies with perfectly affordable payments cut them to fund acquisitions and such. See the rest here: 3 Stocks With Reliable 3% Dividends

Continue Reading

There aren’t many leaders out there right now in a cup base. Many top stocks are notching new highs off earlier breakouts. Others are bouncing off the 50-day line. The worst are wandering around in sloppy, indefinite action. Perfect World (NasdaqGS: PWRD – News ) is an exception. It has formed a cup base, although it has yet to form a handle. It’s in its seventh week of its base-building effort, and could yet etch a handle. Or it could clear the cup without a handle, which only requires six weeks. The potential buy point 14 the no-handle cup would be 50.59. Yet, the situation is imperfect. The problem with Perfect World is that the base shows zero net accumulation on the weekly chart. In fact, on the first down day of the current base, the Accumulation/Distribution Rating was A. In Tuesday’s IBD it was C+. Ideally you’d like to see some accumulation in the base. On the plus side, the Relative Price Strength line has been rising since mid-October. If Perfect World breaks out now with the market in an uptrend, can the imperfections be overlooked? Yes, but the stock needs to do two things. Its volume should be undeniably strong, and the stock’s fundamentals should be top-notch. Try out IBD Investing Tools absolutely FREE with a 2-Week FREE trial of investors.com. Here is the original post: Cups Are Rare Among Top Stocks Now (Investor’s Business Daily)

Continue Reading

Green Star Alternative Energy (GSAE) is a demand driven, eco-energy company that concentrates its efforts on changing the way energy is produced. A bright future is dependent upon the appropriate actions of today – and Green Star is developing projects world wide to meet the global need for clean, environmentally friendly methods of energy creation. Green Star Alternative Energy Inc. is currently being carried by momentum.  The company currently has several great opportunities in the works with their wind farm development program.  Their value has doubled since September and at present moment, what with their current news releases and financial conditions, this stock is strongly recommended. Green Star Erects Wind Sensor at Ram

Continue Reading

If you’re going to search for upside surprises, though, look for big ones. While you’d think that companies would surprise pleasantly as often as they disappoint, and that the average results of many companies over many quarters would match forecasts, in fact, companies have since the 1980s grown gradually more likely to beat estimates. That suggests managers are either systematically guiding analysts too low, or tweaking the numbers during a close quarter to beat forecasts by a smidgen, or, as some studies suggest , both. Note that tweaking isn’t necessarily cheating. A manager might, say, slash research spending late in the quarter, to the detriment of long-term profits but to the aid of immediate ones. But the result is that companies that beat by a whisker while slashing crucial spending typically end up producing poorer stock returns than ones that miss by a little while making healthy investments in the business. Original post: 3 Stocks That Trounced Earnings Forecasts

Continue Reading

If you take a quick look at the table below, you will see there is a wide array of funds, including international offerings and those that focus on large or small companies. At the moment, the market isn’t discriminating: All types of shares are gaining ground. However, through the third quarter, growth funds — large, mid and small-cap ones — are beating their value cousins. The growth trend is one we have been seeing throughout the year . But a word of caution about those fast growers — many market watchers think stocks are due for a cooling off period. Link: 10 Funds in Turnaround Mode

Continue Reading

Why the badgering? Following Buffett’s Oct. 16 essay published in The New York Times, in which he said he had been buying American stocks, the S&P 500 index fell an additional 29%. The piece is perhaps remembered more for its headline, “Buy American, I Am,” than for its content, which included the caveat, “I haven’t the faintest idea as to whether stocks will be higher or lower a month — or a year — from now.” Today, the S&P 500 is up about 10% from when Buffett wrote his essay. Follow this link: What Else Is Buffett Buying?

Continue Reading

That said, by studying these funds investors can pick out trends — and then decide whether they have staying power or not. Over a dozen of the funds on our larger list are classified as emerging-market offerings. T. Rowe Price Emerging Europe and Mediterranean ( TREMX ), for instance, is up a whopping 113% this year. This concentrated fund invests over half its assets in Russia, 17% in Turkey and almost 7% in Egypt. Several Matthews funds concentrating on India, China and Korea are up big, too. These funds have benefitted from investors willing to take on more risk as the market shows signs of improvement and from the general rise in commodities prices. If either of those pillars is shaken, though, the returns could easily cool off. Visit link: 15 Funds on a 30% Run in 2009

Continue Reading

Big drug makers are tasting their own medicine, you might say. In “The Truth About the Drug Companies” (2004 Random House), former New England Journal of Medicine editor Marcia Angell presented a damning argument that the industry had for years focused more on copycat pills and marketing than on research and innovation. Product pipelines in the industry now look thin and stocks are modestly priced to reflect looming patent expirations. Most Big Pharma companies are spending their considerable cash stockpiles to buy drugs that are in the final stages of development, or else to snap up companies that make such drugs. Bristol-Myers Squibb ( BMY ) will soon lose U.S. patent protection for Plavix, a blood-thinner and source of more than a quarter of the company’s recent sales. Management this year spent $2.4 billion, most of its available cash, to buy Medarex, a Princeton. N.J., biotech with cancer drugs in development. Bristol-Myers sells for 11 times earnings. It, too, has a huge dividend: 5.7%. Payments look plenty affordable for the next few years, which isn’t a guarantee the company will keep making them. Pfizer ( PFE ) earlier this year halved its seemingly affordable dividend to help pay for its $68 billion cash-and-stock purchase of rival Wyeth. See the original post here: 3 Stocks for Contrarian Investors

Continue Reading

Most Overbought {”s” : “dzz,eev,psq,qid,rwm,smn,twm”,”k” : “c10,l10,p20,t10″,”o” : “”,”j” : “”} The following ETFs are the most overbought for Thursday, October 29, 2009 and are due for a short term reversal. This analysis is based on research published in Larry Connors’ new book, High Probability ETF Trading . ProShares Short QQQ ETF (NYSE: PSQ – News ) ProShares UltraShort MSCI Emerging Markets ETF (NYSE: EEV – News ) ProShares UltraShort QQQ Trust ETF (NYSE: QID – News ) ProShares UltraShort Basic Materials ETF (NYSE: SMN – News ) DB Gold Double Short ETN (NYSE: DZZ – News ) ProShares UltraShort Russell 2000 ETF (NYSE: TWM – News ) ProShares Short Russell 2000 Index ETF (NYSE: RWM – News ) ProShares UltraShort FTSE/Xinhua China 25 ETF (NYSE: FXP – News ) ProShares Short S&P 500 ETF (NYSE: SH – News ) ProShares UltraShort S&P 500 ETF (NYSE: SDS – News ) PowerShares DB U.S. Dollar Index Bullish Fund (NYSE: UUP – News ) ProShares UltraShort Real Estate ETF (NYSE: SRS – News ) ProShares UltraShort Financial ETF (NYSE: SKF – News ) ProShares UltraShort Dow 30 Trust ETF (NYSE: DXD – News ) ProShares Short Dow 30 Trust ETF (NYSE: DOG – News ) ProShares UltraShort Oil & Gas ETF (NYSE: DIG – News ) iShares Barclays 7-10 Year Treasury Bond Fund ETF (NYSE: IEF – News ) iShares Barclays 20+ Year Treasury Bond Fund ETF (NYSE: TLT – News ) Overbought ETF Chart of the Day – ProShares UltraShort MSCI Emerging Markets ETF – EEV Most Oversold The following ETFs are the most oversold for Thursday, October 29, 2009 and are due for a short term reversal. This analysis is based on research published in Larry Connors’ new book, High Probability ETF Trading . Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (NYSE: GDX – News ) iShares S&P U.S. Preferred Stock Index Fund ETF (NYSE: PFF – News ) SPDR S&P Metals & Mining ETF (NYSE: XME – News ) PowerShares Wilderhill Clean Energy Portfolio ETF (NYSE: PBW – News ) iPath MSCI India Index ETN (NYSE: INP – News ) iShares MSCI Mexico Index Fund ETF (NYSE: EWW – News ) iShares Dow Jones U.S. Transportation Average ETF (NYSE: IYT – News ) iShares MSCI Austria Index Fund ETF (NYSE: EWO – News ) WisdomTree India Earnings Fund ETF (NYSE: EPI – News ) Market Vectors Steel ETF (NYSE: SLX – News ) iShares MSCI Taiwan Index Fund ETF (NYSE: EWT – News ) Market Vectors Coal ETF (NYSE: KOL – News ) iShares Nasdaq Biotechnology Index Fund ETF (NYSE: IBB – News ) iShares Goldman Sachs Natural Resources Index Fund ETF (NYSE: IGE – News ) Claymore BNY BRIC ETF (NYSE: EEB – News ) PowerShares QQQ Trust ETF (NYSE: QQQQ – News ) Market Vectors Russia ETF (NYSE: RSX – News ) iShares MSCI Canada Index Fund ETF (NYSE: EWC – News ) ProShares Ultra QQQ Trust ETF [QLD|QLD] iShares MSCI Emerging Markets Index Fund ETF (NYSE: EEM – News ) Vanguard Emerging Markets ETF (NYSE: VWO – News ) iShares MSCI Singapore Index Fund ETF (NYSE: EWS – News ) Market Vectors Agribusiness ETF (NYSE: MOO – News ) iShares MSCI Pacific ex-Japan Index Fund ETF (NYSE: EPP – News ) iShares MSCI Brazil Index Fund ETF (NYSE: EWZ – News ) iShares Dow Jones U.S. Basic Materials Index Fund ETF (NYSE: IYM – News ) iShares S&P Latin America 40 Index Fund ETF (NYSE: ILF – News ) iShares MSCI Japan Index ETF (NYSE: EWJ – News ) iShares Dow Jones U.S. Oil Equipment and Services Index Fund ETF (NYSE: IEZ – News ) Vanguard Mid Cap ETF (NYSE: VO – News ) Rydex CurrencyShares Australian Dollar Trust ETF (NYSE: FXA.TO – News ) Oversold ETF of the Day – Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF – GLD Just Launched NEW ETF PowerRatings! Find the best ETFs to trade daily. Everything you need to trade ETFs in just one number. Get Your 7 Day Free Trial now. Read the r est here: TradingMarkets Most Overbought and Oversold ETFs for Thursday (TradingMarkets.com)

Continue Reading

Futures point to negative open as traders await key economic data this morning. On Tuesday, stocks finished mixed with a weak consumer confidence report offsetting improvement in housing prices. Earnings have remained better than expected, but many feel this good news has been priced into the market. Oversea markets are weak with the Hang Seng losing 1.84 percent and the Nikkei down 1.35 percent. Indices in Europe are also lower on declines in bank stocks and a dip in oil prices. The Dow ( ^DJI ) did end a two day streak of triple digit losses Tuesday, but the bears still have hold of stocks. The bulls are hoping that a strong durable goods orders report and improvement in new home sales will provide incentive to buy. Economists are looking for durable goods orders to rise 1.5 percent for September with new home sales expected to show a gain of 11,000 units to 440,000. Traders got good news on the housing sector Tuesday when the Case-Shiller home price index showed strength, rising 1.3 percent. In earnings news, WellPoint ( WLP ) blew past earnings estimates, reporting EPS of $1.78, 40-cents above expectations. The insurer also provided guidance that was slightly better than expected. Revenues fell 0.7 percent, but at $15.21 billion, results were ahead of estimates for revenues of $15.15. WLP shares are up in pre-market trading by more than two percent to a price near $48. International Paper ( IP ) shares are up nearly 4 percent near $23.75 after reporting earnings. The company announced earnings of 37-cents a share, 13-cents better than expected. Software company SAP ( SAP ) reported a 12 percent rise in profits, but this came from a lower tax rate and better margins as revenues fell. However, SAP is seeing its shares fall nearly 8 percent this morning thanks to a negative outlook. A number of companies will report Wednesday including the following: Ashland ( ASH ), Coca-Cola Enterprises ( CCE ), General Dynamics ( GD ), GlaxoSmithKline ( GSK ), Goodyear ( GT ), Hess ( HES ) and Symantec ( SYMC ). Fear has risen this past week as stocks have fallen with the Market Volatility Index ( ^VIX ) rising nearly 25 percent to a price near 25. The index used 20 as support and has moved higher as traders worry about the economy and just how quickly employment will strength across the globe. Jody Osborne Senior Staff Writer & Options Strategist Optionetics.com ~ Your Options Education Site Visit Jody’s Forum For more information on learning how to make money with options, go to the Optionetics.com full site! We empower investors through knowledge.

Continue Reading

I mentioned Harley-Davidson ( HOG ) here just last week in a look at companies whose earnings are expected to double next year. That sounds like a promising attribute, but I view it as a negative one, because it makes for high expectations that are easily fallen short of. But Harley is at least building from a low base. Earnings this year are seen totaling just 42 cents a share. Next year they’re forecast to jump to $1.37 a share, mostly on aggressive cost cuts. That puts shares, priced at about $26 apiece, at 19 times 2010 earnings. But last year the company earned $2.79 a share and three years ago it earned close to $4. Again, a return to either level would prove shares cheap. Harley will soon have a smaller U.S. manufacturing presence it used to, because part of its cost-cutting plans involve closing a York, Pa., plant. It’s difficult to imagine hogs being built anywhere but the U.S., though, and about 30% of sales come from elsewhere.

Continue Reading

Most Overbought {”s” : “dzz,eev,psq,qid,smn,twm,uup”,”k” : “c10,l10,p20,t10″,”o” : “”,”j” : “”} The following ETFs are the most overbought for Wednesday, October 28, 2009 and are due for a short term reversal. This analysis is based on research published in Larry Connors’ new book, High Probability ETF Trading . ProShares Short QQQ ETF (NYSE: PSQ – News ) ProShares UltraShort QQQ Trust ETF (NYSE: QID – News ) ProShares UltraShort MSCI Emerging Markets ETF (NYSE: EEV – News ) DB Gold Double Short ETN (NYSE: DZZ – News ) ProShares UltraShort Basic Materials ETF (NYSE: SMN – News ) PowerShares DB U.S. Dollar Index Bullish Fund (NYSE: UUP – News ) ProShares UltraShort Russell 2000 ETF (NYSE: TWM – News ) ProShares Short Russell 2000 Index ETF (NYSE: RWM – News ) ProShares Short S&P 500 ETF (NYSE: SH – News ) ProShares UltraShort S&P 500 ETF (NYSE: SDS – News ) ProShares UltraShort Financial ETF (NYSE: SKF – News ) ProShares UltraShort Real Estate ETF (NYSE: SRS – News ) ProShares UltraShort Dow 30 Trust ETF (NYSE: DXD – News ) ProShares UltraShort FTSE/Xinhua China 25 ETF (NYSE: FXP – News ) ProShares Short Dow 30 Trust ETF (NYSE: DOG – News ) Overbought ETF Chart of the Day – ProSharse Short QQQ ETF – PSQ Most Oversold The following ETFs are the most oversold for Wednesday, October 28, 2009 and are due for a short term reversal. This analysis is based on research published in Larry Connors’ new book, High Probability ETF Trading . Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (NYSE: GDX – News ) SPDR S&P Metals & Mining ETF (NYSE: XME – News ) iPath MSCI India Index ETN (NYSE: INP – News ) WisdomTree India Earnings Fund ETF (NYSE: EPI – News ) iShares S&P U.S. Preferred Stock Index Fund ETF (NYSE: PFF – News ) iShares Dow Jones U.S. Transportation Average ETF (NYSE: IYT – News ) iShares MSCI Mexico Index Fund ETF (NYSE: EWW – News ) PowerShares Wilderhill Clean Energy Portfolio ETF (NYSE: PBW – News ) Market Vectors Steel ETF (NYSE: SLX – News ) iShares MSCI Austria Index Fund ETF (NYSE: EWO – News ) iShares Nasdaq Biotechnology Index Fund ETF (NYSE: IBB – News ) iShares MSCI Canada Index Fund ETF (NYSE: EWC – News ) Market Vectors Agribusiness ETF (NYSE: MOO – News ) PowerShares QQQ Trust ETF (NYSE: QQQQ – News ) Market Vectors Coal ETF (NYSE: KOL – News ) ProShares Ultra QQQ Trust ETF (NYSE: QLD – News ) Claymore BNY BRIC ETF (NYSE: EEB – News ) iShares MSCI Japan Index ETF (NYSE: EWJ – News ) Market Vectors Russia ETF (NYSE: RSX – News ) iShares Silver Trust ETF (NYSE: SLV – News ) Industrial Select Sector SPDRS ETF (NYSE: XLI – News ) Utilities Select Sector SPDRS ETF (NYSE: XLU – News ) iShares S&P GSTI Semiconductor Index Fund ETF (NYSE: IGW – News ) iShares MSCI Emerging Markets Index Fund ETF (NYSE: EEM – News ) iShares MSCI Germany Index Fund ETF (NYSE: EWG – News ) Oversold ETF of the Day – iPath MSCI India Index ETN – INP Improve your ETF success rate with Larry Connors’ daily ETF strategies. With an 84% successful model portfolio, why deny yourself this free trial?  Click Here.

Continue Reading

I find Morningstar Investor Returns data fascinating. Recently, I looked at the gap between total returns and investor returns across the Morningstar Style Box and found that it had widened significantly. While looking at those figures, I wondered how they worked out on a fund company level. By asset weighting investor returns on a fund company level, I could find out whose shareholders fared better. Or, put another way, whose shareholders are smarter? {”s” : “cgmfx,fdffx,fdivx,femkx,fexpx,figrx,fmagx,fsivx,fstvx,ftabx,prfdx,vcvlx,vftsx,vhcox,vpccx,vtsmx,vwilx”,”k” : “c10,l10,p20,t10″,”o” : “cgmfx,fdffx,fdivx,femkx,fexpx,figrx,fmagx,fsivx,fstvx,ftabx,prfdx,vcvlx,vftsx,vhcox,vpccx,vtsmx,vwilx”,”j” : “”} As you may recall, investor returns are calculated by adjusting returns for flows in and out of funds in order to arrive at an estimate of the average investor’s return in the fund. As I pointed out in my comparison of CGM Focus’ (NASDAQ: CGMFX – News ) investor returns with T. Rowe Price Equity Income’s (NASDAQ: PRFDX – News ), steady returns at T. Rowe Price Equity Income led to steady flows and typically solid investor returns. However, CGM Focus’ investor returns were much worse than its total returns because a huge portion of its shareholder base came into the fund in 2007 and the first half of 2008 when performance was great only to get whipsawed when performance slowed. While the gap between the two return figures is interesting, investor returns are really the bottom line. I’d feel better about CGM Focus if it had a big gap but its investor returns were still strong. For my first fund company smack down, I went straight to the fund industry’s Montagues and Capulets (substitute Hatfields and McCoys or Wolverines and Buckeyes if you prefer): Vanguard and Fidelity. To be fair, many investors have accounts with both companies, and I’m one of those–so please take this in the spirit of fun that it is intended. To gauge whose investors are smarter or better off, I looked at 10-year returns through September 2009. I limited the study to funds that were in existence for the whole 10 years. While that could introduce serious survivorship bias for shops like Columbia and BlackRock, which have eliminated a lot of funds, Vanguard and Fidelity don’t kill off many funds. We looked at investments by asset class and overall. The Winner Is … Vanguard. Collectively, Vanguard investors earned a 2.63% annualized 10-year return compared with an annualized 1.52% for Fidelity investors. The asset-weighted total returns for the two firms were closer than the investor returns. Vanguard’s overall figure was 3.42% compared with 3.06%. Vanguard shareholders outperformed Fidelity shareholders in U.S. stock funds, taxable bonds, and balanced funds–the first two are the biggest asset classes at both shops. Fidelity shareholders did better in international and alternative assets. The firm’s municipal-bond shareholders finished within a basis point, so I’m calling that a draw. The story on domestic stocks reflects the challenges that both firms have faced this decade. Large-cap stocks haven’t done much, but that’s naturally where most big equity operations will have most of their money. Performance of the most important cap-weighted indexes that Vanguard tracks has been tepid. For example, Vanguard Total Stock Market Index’s (NASDAQ: VTSMX – News ) 10-year return through the third quarter is 0.84% annualized–that’s a little better than the average large-blend fund but in absolute terms not great. However, performance has at least been steady: The fund finishes most calendar years in the second quartile. On the flip side, Fidelity has had a few wonderfully consistent managers like Will Danoff and Joel Tillinghast, but many other funds like Independence (NASDAQ: FDFFX – News ), Magellan (NASDAQ: FMAGX – News ), Export & Multinational (NASDAQ: FEXPX – News ), and Dividend Growth (NASDAQ: FDGFX – News ) have been roller-coaster rides with big shifts in performance, some of which led to a manager change. Thus, a 1.92% total return for the funds withered to an investor return of 0.66%. The story on munis is also interesting. There, Fidelity beat Vanguard by 43 basis points annualized on total returns but its shareholders had the same returns as Vanguard’s. The reason is that Fidelity investors redeemed about twice the percentage of assets as Vanguard investors did in the fourth quarter of 2008. Both came back when munis rallied in the first quarter of 2009, but the Fidelity investors missed enough to bring their returns back down to Vanguard investors’ level. Fidelity produced superior international total returns and investor returns through steadier performance and a sizable dose of emerging markets. Fidelity Diversified International (NASDAQ: FDIVX – News ) is by far the biggest of Fidelity’s foreign group. In the first half of the decade, it had great returns, and, while returns have been middling in the second half, that wasn’t enough to throw investors. Other funds like Fidelity International Discovery (NASDAQ: FIGRX – News ) and Fidelity Emerging Markets (NASDAQ: FEMKX – News ) have strong returns in the past five years, and that means those who did get in have largely been rewarded. To see the table, click here: http://news.morningstar.com/articlenet/article.aspx?id=312153 What It Means Vanguard has produced steadier performance and that makes for better investor results. Both its passive and active strategies have been more dependable on the equity side. Fidelity’s challenge in domestic equities is not just to produce better performance but to be able to maintain that performance edge and tone down manager changes. It’s possible that the performance gap also has something to do with each firm’s message to investors. Vanguard preaches long-term investing and goes so far as to warn investors away from hot-performing funds. Just this month, it closed Vanguard Capital Value (NASDAQ: VCVLX – News ) because too much hot money was coming in. Fidelity also preaches long-term investing, but it sometimes nudges people to invest based on short-term results. Shortly before Fidelity Independence tanked, for example, Fidelity was advertising the fund heavily even though it had just changed managers on the fund. When you draw a big line under one-year or three-year performance, investors will naturally sell your fund when its one-year or three-year performance is weak. Unfortunately, that’s often the time that the fund is about to rebound. Where I Placed My Bets Vanguard and Fidelity offer quite a lot, so I have accounts with both. I go to Fidelity for its index funds, muni funds, and money markets. I go to Vanguard for its actively managed stock funds and one index fund. And I’m a patient investor so that I can be there when the rally starts or at least close enough. My Vanguard holdings include the closed Capital Opportunity (NASDAQ: VHCOX – News ) and Vanguard Primecap Core (NASDAQ: VPCCX – News ) as well as the still-open Vanguard International Growth (NASDAQ: VWILX – News ) and Vanguard FTSE Social Index (NASDAQ: VFTSX – News ). I’ve owned Cap Opp and International Growth since the mid-1990s. At Fidelity, I own Fidelity Tax-Free Bond (NASDAQ: FTABX – News ), Fidelity Spartan Total Market Index (NASDAQ: FSTVX – News ), and Fidelity Spartan International Index (fsivx..) Russel Kinnel has a position in the following securities mentioned above: VWILX VWILX VPCCX VFTSX VHCOX FTABX FSIVX FSTVX Morningstar Premium Members get access to over 3,900 Stock and Fund Analyst Reports, Analyst Picks, and award-winning portfolio tools. Learn More .

Continue Reading

U.S. markets were back on the retreat to end the week with financials, energy and materials names helping lead lower. Around the world, ETFs and ETNs representing the equities markets of India were among those moving most aggressively toward oversold territory above the 200-day. {”s” : “dig,ewj,fxb,ifn,spy,uyg,xhb”,”k” : “c10,l10,p20,t10″,”o” : “”,”j” : “”} Here are 7 ETFs You Need to Know for Monday. Off by more than 1% and closing lower for three out of the past four days, the S&P 500 SPDRS ETF (NYSE: SPY – News ) remains rangebound as it has been for the past several days. Also closing lower for three out of the past four days was the India Fund (NYSE: IFN – News ), which lost well over 1% on Friday. Plunging more than 2% into deeply oversold territory was the iShares MSCI Japan Index Fund ETF (NYSE: EWJ – News ). EWJ closed at its lowest level since the beginning of the month. Down over 2% on the day but not yet back into oversold territory above the 200-day was the ProShares Ultra Financials ETF (NYSE: UYG – News ). Meanwhile, reversing most of the gains from Thursday was the drop in the SPDR Homebuilders ETF (NYSE: XHB – News ), which lost more than 2% on Friday, pulling back to near-oversold levels. Weakness in crude oil and energy shares led to a gain of over 4% for the ProShares UltraShort Oil & Gas ETF (NYSE: DIG – News ). The bounce pushes the fund into overbought territory below the 200-day moving average. Reversing to the downside after a surprising move higher over the past few days was the CurrencyShares British Pound Sterling Trust (NYSE: FXB – News ). FXB lost nearly 2%, but remains above its 10-day moving average. Improve Your ETF Trading – Get your free 7 day free trial to ETF PowerRatings, a simple ETF ranking system with nearly 80% winning trades since 2003…Click Here!

Continue Reading

Early warnings from the railroad sector sent stocks steeply lower on the session. Better than expected housing data and strong earnings from several prime names did not counteract the railroad generated fear. The DJIA fell 109.13, the tech heavy Nasdaq gave back 10.82, and the broad based S&P 500 dropped 13.31. {”s” : “bidu,drys,glw,mhp,rsh,vrtx,vz”,”k” : “c10,l10,p20,t10″,”o” : “”,”j” : “”} Here are 7 stocks you need to know for Monday. Find high probability stock trading strategies for stocks such as these in Larry Connors’ book, Short Term Trading Strategies That Work . Corning Inc (NYSE: GLW – News ) has analysts expecting third quarter earnings of 39 cents/share prior to trading. The Stock PowerRating for GLW is 5. $1.06/share is the forecast third quarter earnings for McGraw-Hill (NYSE: MHP – News ) before the bell. The Stock PowerRating for MHP is 5. Verizon (NYSE: VZ – News ) is projecting third quarter earnings of 60 cents/share for the third quarter prior to the 9:30 AM EST market open. The Stock PowerRating for VZ is 4. An EPS of 30 cents is the consensus guess for RadioShack ’s (NYSE: RSH – News ) third quarter before the open. The Stock PowerRating for RSH is 6. DryShips (NasdaqGS: DRYS – News ) is expecting a third quarter EPS of 21 cents after the close of trading. The Stock PowerRating for DRYS is 5. Chinese internet search powerhouse, Baidu.com (NasdaqGS: BIDU – News ), has forecast a third quarter EPS of $1.80. The Stock PowerRating for BIDU is 5. Vertex Pharmaceuticals (NasdaqGS: VRTX – News ) is hoping its third quarter loss does not exceed the estimated 80 cents/share. The Stock PowerRating for VRTX is 8. Improve Your ETF Trading – Get your 7 day free trial to ETF PowerRatings, a simple ETF ranking system with nearly 80% winning trades since 2003…Click Here!

Continue Reading

Trackback URL for this story: http://www.smartmoney.com/tb/JtCm.2FNM.3D What is a Trackback? It is a way to tell us that you have published something that references this story. How do I send a Trackback? If you blog or mention this story on your website, you can use this Trackback URL to notify us about it. Some blogging software programs can help in sending a Trackback to us. Click here to read more about Trackbacks.

Continue Reading

Microsoft brought out a secret weapon to launch its new Windows 7 personal computer operating system: a 5-year-old Asian-American girl named Kylie. {”s” : “aapl,amzn,bby,dell,msft”,”k” : “c10,l10,p20,t10″,”o” : “”,”j” : “”} The adorable youngster made a splash last year in Microsoft’s (NasdaqGS: MSFT – News ) “I’m a PC” commercials when, at the age of 4, she demonstrated the benefits of Windows PCs. The commercials helped to counter the negative image of Windows PCs being hard to use that was portrayed in Apple’s (NasdaqGS: AAPL – News ) Macintosh ads. At a launch event Thursday in New York, Kylie came on stage to introduce Microsoft CEO Steve Ballmer. The software leader also played some new commercials featuring Kylie for the attending media. Kylie’s presence at the event and in new commercials is meant to reinforce some of the key benefits of Windows 7, namely that it’s simple to use and features a lot of fun multimedia applications. Microsoft needs a hit with Windows 7, the latest version of its flagship product, which runs 95% of the world’s personal computers. Poor reviews and numerous complaints greeted the previous version, Vista. Only a small percentage of Windows users upgraded to Vista, which was launched in January 2007. Most have stuck with its predecessor, Windows XP, which is now 8 years old. Microsoft took to heart feedback from millions of Windows Vista customers and Windows 7 beta testers, Ballmer says. With Windows 7, Microsoft tried to clear up the major gripes with Vista. Users complained that Vista was slow to boot up. They grumbled about Vista’s annoying security alerts and the fact that common tasks took too many steps. “Windows 7 works the way you want to work,” said Ballmer, who admitted he’s a salesman at heart. “You want that computer to fire up quickly? Boom. You want it to feel responsive? Boom. You want longer battery life. Boom. We needed to make those things work — simpler, faster, more responsive, leaner, less busy. And I think we’ve accomplished that with Windows 7.” Windows 7 also offers new features such as built-in touch-screen capability and more streaming media applications. It has improved wireless networking and photo- and video-creation tools. Kylie’s new commercials show her using a PC to stitch together a panoramic photo from multiple photos she took and also make a photo slide show. Onstage, Ballmer gave her a pink netbook as a gift and she gave him a hug in return. “Kylie sure has done a good job in those commercials, and I’m very thankful for that,” he said. In a dig at Apple, which doesn’t license its OS to other PC makers, Ballmer said Microsoft’s numerous hardware vendors provide computer shoppers with a huge choice of machines in terms of type, size, color and price. PC makers offer netbooks, ultrathin notebooks, traditional notebooks, traditional desktop PCs, all-in-one desktops and high-end gaming machines, he says. Ballmer displayed Dell’s (NasdaqGS: DELL – News ) upcoming Adamo XPS notebook, which at 9.99 millimeters is advertised as the world’s thinnest notebook PC. Best Buy (NYSE: BBY – News ) is offering 45 to 55 models of Windows 7 PCs in each of its stores, says Jason Bonfig, the electronics retailer’s vice president of mobile computing. Best Buy cleared out its inventory of Windows Vista machines over the last four weeks, he says. “We think Windows 7 will be nothing but a positive for our business,” Bonfig said. Best Buy is seeing a lot of interest in Windows 7 in its stores and on its Web page, he says. In the months ahead, Best Buy expects to see more vendors offering all-in-one desktops, in which the computer is integrated with the monitor, Bonfig says. Microsoft showed off new applications for Windows 7, including a new Kindle book-reading program from Amazon.com (NasdaqGS: AMZN – News ) and live-streaming CBS television shows. Microsoft’s Windows 7 launch event in New York was more subdued than previous Windows OS kickoffs. The company also held events in major cities worldwide, including Tokyo, London, Paris, Munich, Dubai and Beijing. Windows 7 is the work of 3,000 Microsoft software engineers and involved the cooperation of 50,000 third-party software, hardware and peripheral vendors. Microsoft shares edged up a penny on Thursday. The Redmond, Wash., based company is set to report fiscal first-quarter earnings Friday. Market research firms Gartner and IDC expect Windows 7 to contribute to a refresh cycle for commercial PCs in 2010. Try out IBD Investing Tools absolutely FREE with a 2-Week FREE trial of investors.com.

Continue Reading

Strong earning reports from several key names counteracted weak macro economic news sending shares soaring on the session. Word of the Fed attempting to control bank pay in an effort to reign in reckless gambles and the Treasury slashing salaries at firms receiving bail out funds did little to stem the bullish sentiment. The DJIA advanced 131.95, the tech heavy Nasdaq climbed 14.65, and the broad based S&P 500 moved higher by 11.51. {”s” : “exc,fo,ir,rdy,trow,whr,wl”,”k” : “c10,l10,p20,t10″,”o” : “”,”j” : “”} Here are 7 stocks you need to know for Friday. Find high probability stock trading strategies for stocks such as these in Larry Connors’ book, Short Term Trading Strategies That Work . Wilmington Trust (NYSE: WL – News ) is expecting to see third quarter earnings of 7 cents before the bell on Friday morning. The Stock PowerRating for WL is 8. 46 cents/share is the forecast third quarter figure for T. Rowe Price Group (NasdaqGS: TROW – News ) prior to trading on Friday. The Stock PowerRating for TROW is 5. Ingersoll-Rand Company (NYSE: IR – News ) has its sights set on a third quarter result of 61 cents/share before the 9:30 AM EST market start on Friday. The Stock PowerRating for IR is 4. 95 cents/share is the consensus figure for Exelon (NYSE: EXC – News ) third quarter on Friday morning prior to trading. The Stock PowerRating for EXC is 6. Dr. Reddy’s Labs (NYSE: RDY – News ) is ready for its fiscal 2nd quarter 2010 earnings before the bell on Friday with an expected 20 cents/share result. The Stock PowerRating for RDY is 6. An EPS of 77 cents is the projected figure for Whirlpool Corp (NYSE: WHR – News ) third quarter revealed prior to trading on Friday morning. The Stock PowerRating for WHR is 7. Fortune Brands (NYSE: FO – News ) has forecast a third quarter EPS of 63 cents before the bell on Friday. The Stock PowerRating for FO is 6. Just Launched NEW ETF PowerRatings! Find the best ETFs to trade daily. Everything you need to trade ETFs in just one number. Get Your 7 Day Free Trial now.

Continue Reading

With financials at the lead, equity index ETFs advanced on Thursday, sending bond ETFs into oversold territory above the 200-day moving average. Select ETFs in the metals and mining sectors were also among those pulling back above the 200-day late in the week. {”s” : “agg,ewt,ewy,fas,gdx,ucc,xme”,”k” : “c10,l10,p20,t10″,”o” : “”,”j” : “”} Here are 7 ETFs You Need to Know for Friday. Up big on a big up day for financial ETFs was the Direxion Daily Financial Bull 3x Shares ETF (NYSE: FAS – News ) which gained well over 7% on Thursday. Despite the move higher, FAS has not yet re-entered overbought territory above the 200-day. Among the very few country ETFs that are oversold above the 200-day are the iShares MSCI Taiwan Index ETF (NYSE: EWT – News ) and the iShares MSCI South Korea Index ETF (NYSE: EWY – News ). Both funds have closed lower for three sessions in a row and have earned ETF PowerRatings of 8. Minor pullbacks on Thursday nevertheless pushed metals and mining related ETFs deeper into oversold territory above the 200-day moving average. Characteristic of these pullbacks were the moves lower in the Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (NYSE: GDX – News ) and the SPDR S&P Metals & Mining ETF (NYSE: XME – News ). Up well over 2% after a two-day pullback was the ProShares Ultra Consumer Services ETF (NYSE: UCC – News ). Consumer cyclical stocks were second only to the financials in moving markets higher on Thursday. Strength in equities translated into a predictable pullback in bonds, with bond ETFs like the iShares Barclays Aggregate Bond Fund ETF (NYSE: AGG – News ) sliding from neutral to oversold territory above the 200-day on Thursday. Nearly 80% winning trades since 2003! Introducing ETF PowerRatings, a simple and powerful rating service, that ranks ETFs from 1 to 10. Get your 7 day free trial – Click Here.

Continue Reading

What do you do if you’re on the wrong side of a slowing market? Selling in a slump is part mental adjustment, part common sense. Here are some critical pieces of advice for selling your home in this market: Price it right. Most real estate agents agree that pricing your home correctly is one of the best strategies in a competitive market. But this is also one of the toughest hurdles for sellers who remember asking prices from several years ago. Because things have been changing in this market from month to month, it can be hard to get a handle on what kind of pricing the market will allow. This means you must rely heavily on the expertise of your real estate agent and a property appraiser. Remember: That was then, this is now. Simply forget that your neighbor sold his fixer-upper back in 2004 in three hours for $20,000 above the asking price. The new “normal” is likely to involve making concessions to your buyer, such as price adjustments, home repairs, or help with closing costs. Get picky. Invite a brutally honest friend to walk through your home and point out potential turnoffs for buyers. A fresh set of eyes may catch things (the spot on the wall where your three-year-old squashed PlayDoh, for example) that a proud homeowner no longer sees. Remove the clutter. Excess stuff is visually distracting, and it creates a bad first impression. Rent a storage unit to house non-essentials while your home is on the market. For just a few hundred dollars, you’ll have given your house a mini-makeover that buyers will appreciate. Create neutral territory. While you don’t have to paint everything white, it does help to tone down unusual color choices and to remove personal items from view (bye-bye, Elvis memorabilia!). You want potential buyers to be able to envision themselves in your home, not critique your taste. Sweat the small stuff. Repaint, replace fixtures, clean, plant flowers — in short, do whatever you can do to make your home put its best foot forward to a potential buyer. With a glut of inventory, buyers can afford to be choosy. Think on your feet. Sellers need to stay alert in this kind of market. Another house comes on the market in your neighborhood? Ask your agent to visit it and see how the price and condition compare with yours. Get a lowball offer? Before you turn it down, get the latest comps for your area to see if prices have shifted. Getting traffic in your house but no offers? Make sure your agent is calling other real estate agents for their feedback. Staying on top of your home-selling process is the key to securing a good offer. While the sellers of today must be made of sterner stuff than in years past, there’s no reason to panic. People are still buying, just not with the same wild-eyed intensity of yesteryear. Follow these tips to optimize your position all the way to the closing table. For more on managing your real estate Foolishly: When Is the Right Time to Sell? Spruce Up Your Home to Sell Get It Done: Pick the Right Listing Agent

Continue Reading

Another day, another 7,000 people run out of unemployment benefits. One month after the House passed a bill extending unemployment benefits, the issue is still being debated in the Senate. Democratic leaders in the Senate introduced a bill two weeks ago to lengthen benefits in all states by 14 weeks. Those that live in states with unemployment greater than 8.5% would receive an additional six weeks. Senate Republicans want to add several amendments, including one that would pay for the extra benefits with stimulus funds rather than by extending a federal unemployment tax. While leaders in both parties are trying to negotiate a compromise, Senate Democrats Wednesday took a step to bring the bill to the floor as early as the end of next week. If it passes, the Senate legislation must then be reconciled with the House version, which extends benefits by 13 weeks in high-unemployment states. Meanwhile, the bickering has cost people like Crystal Jordan of Dolton, Ill., their benefits. The single mother of three ran out in late September. She is one of the 1.3 million people set to lose their benefits before year’s end if Congress doesn’t act, according to the National Employment Law Project, an advocacy group. In October alone, more than 200,000 people will fall off the rolls. Lawmakers twice lengthened the time people can receive checks to as much as 79 weeks, depending on the state. Jordan lost her administrative support job in the spring of 2008. She had never been unemployed before and hasn’t been able to find work since, despite sending out 10 resumes a day. Jordan is also finishing her bachelor’s degree in business management. She hopes that will give her the edge she needs to find a job in 2010. The $1,000 check she received every two weeks allowed her to pay the rent and feed her family. Now, she doesn’t know how she’ll cover next month’s bills. “I am fearful we will all end up on the street because I can’t find a job and have no income,” Jordan said. “Everyone’s household is extremely tight at the moment so I cannot lean on friends or family for any support.” More Americans than ever before are in Jordan’s situation. More than one in three people who are unemployed have been out of work for at least six months, according to the law project. The unemployment rate hit a 26-year high of 9.8% in September . “We’re talking about people who’ve been unemployed for well over a year,” said Judy Conti, federal advocacy coordinator at the law project. “If they had savings, it’s gone. This is their last lifeline.” Gregg Rock, a business strategy consultant, drained his savings after joining the ranks of the unemployed in summer 2008. He was forced to move back to his mother’s home in Huntington, N.Y., for the first time in more than 20 years. With so many people looking for work, Rock feels his best chance is land a new job is through networking. But it costs him $18 just to trek into Manhattan, not to mention $4 for a cup of coffee at Starbucks, where he often meets people who he hopes will lead him to a job. Rock’s benefits ran out last week. Now, he says, he’ll be forced to drive a cab at night or take a bartending job just to earn enough to keep job hunting. “Unemployment is what allows you to afford to be out there networking,” Rock said.

Continue Reading

A late session sell off dashed the bull’s hopes for a positive close. Downgrades and disparaging words from a major retailer triggered a flurry of selling near the close. Positive data from the Fed’s Beige Book was quickly counteracted by dire employment data across 23 states adding to the bearish tone at the end of the day. The DJIA dropped 92.12, the Nasdaq fell 12.74, and the broad based S&P 500 gave back 9.66. {”s” : “bmy,cs,mmm,t,trad,ups,xrx”,”k” : “c10,l10,p20,t10″,”o” : “”,”j” : “”} Here are 7 stocks you need to know for Thursday. Find high probability stock trading strategies for stocks such as these in Larry Connors’ book, Short Term Trading Strategies That Work . Xerox (NYSE: XRX – News ) is expecting third quarter results of 12 cents/share prior to the open on Thursday. The Stock PowerRating for XRX is 4. 52 cents/share is the forecast third quarter number for United Parcel Service (NYSE: UPS – News ) Thursday before the bell. The Stock PowerRating for UPS is 5. Popular retail stock broker, TradeStation Group (NasdaqGS: TRAD – News ), has forecast a third quarter EPS of 8 cents prior to the trading day on Thursday. The Stock PowerRating for TRAD is 8. Before the opening bell on Thursday, 3M Company (NYSE: MMM – News ), has traders looking for an EPS of $1.17. The Stock PowerRating for MMM is 6. Bristol Myers Squibb (NYSE: BMY – News ) is awaiting an EPS of 51 cents for the third quarter Thursday morning prior to trading. The Stock PowerRating for BMY is 5. Phone king, AT&T (NYSE: T – News ), is listening for a third quarter EPS of 50 cents revealed before the trading day starts Thursday morning. The Stock PowerRating for T is 5. $1.08/share is the consensus estimate for Credit Suisse ’s (NYSE: CS – News ) third quarter prior to trading on Thursday. The Stock PowerRating for CS is 5. Nearly 80% winning trades since 2003! Introducing ETF PowerRatings, a simple and powerful rating service, that ranks ETFs from 1 to 10. Get your 7 day free trial – Click Here!

Continue Reading

A late sell-off helped send equity index ETFs into oversold territory above the 200-day moving average. Meanwhile, banks and home construction exchange-traded funds (ETFs) remained under selling pressure and earning ETF PowerRatings upgrades in the process. {”s” : “dia,ibb,inp,iyg,kre,pph,uso”,”k” : “c10,l10,p20,t10″,”o” : “”,”j” : “”} Here are 7 ETFs You Need to Know for Thursday. A dramatic sell-off in the final 45 minutes of trading on Wednesday sent the Dow DIAMONDS (NYSE: DIA – News ) tumbling by nearly 1% and into oversold territory above the 200-day. Among the top rated ETFs for Thursday are financial oriented funds such as the SPDR KBW Regional Banking ETF (NYSE: KRE – News ) and the iShares Dow Jones U.S. Financial Services Index ETF (NYSE: IYG – News ). Both ETFs have 2-period RSIs of less than 15. While much focus has been put on health care stocks in general, both biotechnology and pharmaceuticals have come under specific selling pressure in recent days. Earning an ETF PowerRating of 8 after gapping down and following-through lower was the Pharmaceutical HOLDRS ETF (NYSE: PPH – News ), while the iShares Nasdaq Biotechnology ETF (NYSE: IBB – News ) stablized after dropping by more than 2% yesterday. Still in oversold territory, IBB has an ETF PowerRating of 8. Down 2% on Wednesday was the iPath MSCI India Index ETN (NYSE: INP – News ). The pullback helped boost the fund’s ETF PowerRating from 5 to 7. The United States Oil Fund (NYSE: USO – News ) gained well over 2% in trading on Wednesday. The day’s gains represent new 20-day and 55-day highs for the commodity-based ETF. Use NEW ETF PowerRatings to help you place consistently winning ETF trades! Start today – Click Here!

Continue Reading

Mortgage applications plunged last week as rates ticked higher above 5%, an industry group said Wednesday, as the expiration of a home buyer tax credit drew nearer. The Mortgage Bankers Association said its index of mortgage application volume fell 13.7% in the week ended Oct. 16 from the prior week. The decline in activity came as rates on the widely-used 30-year fixed mortgage increased to 5.07% from 5.02%, according to the MBA. The week’s adjustments included the Columbus Day holiday. Uncertainty about a possible extension and expansion of an $8,000 tax credit for first-time homebuyers may be hampering the housing recovery. The tax credit now can be claimed by anyone buying a home who has not owned one for three years and who closes the deal by Nov. 30. The MBA said refinancing applications also fell, by 16.8% from the previous week. The purchase index, a measure of applications at mortgage lenders, declined 16.7% last week. The MBA’s Wednesday report comes on the heels of other downbeat data from the U.S. housing market, which had until recently showed signs of stabilization from a major slump. A report Tuesday showed initial construction of homes rose just 0.5% last month to 590,000, far less than expected. Last week, data showed foreclosure filings hit a record high in the third quarter. Another report predicted the national median home price will drop 11.3% by June 2010. The MBA report also showed the average rate for 15-year fixed-rate mortgages rose to 4.51% from 4.44%. Rates for one-year adjustable rate mortgages, or ARMs, jumped to 6.86% from 6.71%.

Continue Reading

Bank of America’s ( BAC ) stock price is 68% below where it stood at the end of bubbly 2006, but because of a much larger share count, its stock market value is down only 38%. Of course, included in that value are mortgage seller Countrywide and investment seller Merrill Lynch, both of which used to have plump market values of their own before falling into desperate financial condition and being bought by Bank of America last year. In the third quarter, Bank of America lost money, as revenue from credit cards, brokerage services, investment banking and mortgages declined from the second quarter. The company is expected to end the year with a profit. The consensus forecast for 2010 calls for a sharp improvement, but individual estimates within the consensus are broadly scattered, and for good reason. Much of the bank’s profit recovery depends on the future ability of borrowers to make their payments, which in turn depends on difficult-to-predict factors like employment and the direction of asset prices.

Continue Reading